WASHINGTON — There’s more and more talk about a “double flip” of Congress on Election Day, with a growing number of analysts predicting Democrats will lose control of the U.S. Senate and Republicans will lose control of the U.S. House.
If control of both chambers changes hands, it would be the first time that has happened in Congress. The flip would also affect the jobs Minnesota lawmakers hold in Congress, as well as their political clout.
All of Minnesota’s members of the House and Sen. Amy Klobuchar are up for re-election on Nov. 5.
If they all win re-election, which is likely but not assured, a double flip will bring big changes to Minnesota’s lawmakers.
Rep. Betty McCollum, D-4th District, for instance, is likely to regain her status as chair of an appropriations subcommittee with authority over the nation’s defense spending.
But it’s Klobuchar who would be the most affected. As a member of the minority in the Senate, Klobuchar would lose her chairmanship of the Senate Rules Committee and her chairmanship of a Senate Judiciary Committee panel with jurisdiction over antitrust matters — one of the senator’s favorite issues.
Klobuchar is also a senior Democrat on the powerful Senate Commerce Committee and her chances to advance on that panel would be scuttled if Democrats fail to keep their majority in the Senate.
And Sen. Tina Smith would lose her chairmanship of a Senate Agriculture subcommittee with jurisdiction over commodities, risk management and trade.
Meanwhile, Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6th District, who is now in the House GOP leadership as majority whip, would be relegated to a leadership role in a party that no longer controls the chamber. And depending on the size of the GOP’s electoral loss, he may not be able to hang on to that post as House Republicans assess whether they want new leadership.
If the GOP loses the House, Rep. Pete Stauber, R-8th District, would no longer chair a House Natural Resources subcommittee in charge of energy and mineral resources, a job that has allowed the lawmaker to advance a number of bills that would benefit the Iron Range’s mining and timber industries.
Why do analysts say the nation is on the brink of a historic double flip?
Currently, parties that control the House and Senate do so by slim majorities.
In the Senate, Democrats and independents who caucus with Democrats hold 51 seats and Republicans hold 49. In this election cycle, Democrats are defending 23 seats, many of them in red or purple states, and Republicans are only defending 11.
The most vulnerable Democratic senators are Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, but there are tight races in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, too.
Meanwhile, Republicans are defending 15 House seats that are considered toss ups — though 12 of them voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats are defending 11 toss up seats, five of which favored Donald Trump.
If Democrats hold on to all the seats they currently hold and flip four seats now held by the GOP, they will have the majority in the House in the next Congress.
The election will also decide whether Minnesota’s lawmakers are tasked with promoting or derailing the agenda of the nation’s new president, who would have to contend with a divided Congress under the double flip scenario.
Walz watch
Gov. Tim Walz went west to California, the nation’s political ATM, and to Washington state and Arizona to appear at several fundraisers this week.
At a fundraising event in Hunts Point, Washington, Walz said Donald Trump “threw governors into Hunger Games with each other” over aid for natural disasters.
Trump said the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) does not have enough money to help Americans recover from hurricanes Helene and Milton because the Department of Homeland Security had spent FEMA money on immigrants, something that is totally untrue. That led to several GOP officials from hurricane-ravaged states to call out the president on the disinformation he was giving storm victims.
Walz also mentioned Vice President Kamala Harris’ appearance on The View and her proposal to allow Medicare to pay for home health care, a costly plan that would be difficult to marshal through Congress.
At a fundraiser in Sacramento, California, hosted by Gov. Gavin Newsom, Walz said “The electoral college needs to go.” But he also said that would be difficult.
In case you missed it
-As I reported, a chaotic election season is likely to end up in a chaotic post-election season because several states have passed laws to slow the count on election night and because of legal challenges to those tallies. So, there’s a good chance we won’t know who voters chose to be the nation’s next president until after Election Day.
-Even if some Gen Z voters are on the fence, Minnesota youth are expected to have a strong impact on November’s election, writes MinnPost intern Amelia Roessler.
-The AP reports that Hmong lawmakers and activists in Minnesota who have built a good rapport with Gov. Tim Walz are working to mobilize voters in swing states to support the Harris-Walz presidential ticket.
-Peter Callaghan reports that a new Minnesota law meant to stop or slow false claims that prevent people from voting remains open to interpretation and mostly untested.
-In a debate moderated by MPR, U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, D-2nd District, and GOP opponent Joe Teirab sparred over abortion, immigration and other issues. Here’s our story on the forum.
Your questions and comments
A reader defended Gov. Tim Walz for a growing list of misstatements, the latest that he was in Hong Kong on the day the Chinese government attacked protesters in Tiananmen Square. He wasn’t. Walz has called himself a “knucklehead” for that misstatement.
“Guys say and do stupid stuff, and one has to admire a guy who owns it,” the reader said. “Better than calling yourself a stable genius. (Those) two words (are) two lies or delusions.”
Another reader responded to a story that said polls show the Harris-Trump race continues to be almost a dead heat.
“How can this thing even be close? …I’m as puzzled by Republican loyalty to a small-time crook and charlatan in the form of Donald Trump as is Tim Walz.”
Please keep your comments, and any questions, coming. I’ll try my best to respond.
